A week ago I wrote an article talking about the division race. I titled it I’m not saying it’s over… BUT…
In that article, I wrote about how the division race was pretty much wrapped up. I wouldn’t officially call it, but things were looking good for the Dodgers. Seven days ago, LA’s division lead was six games. Their magic number was 13. With 19 games remaining, that was a more than comfortable cushion.
Hell, I said there was a chance the Dodgers could clinch the division on this roadtrip!
Well…..
Fast forward a week and the Dodgers’ lead in the division is down to 3.5 games. Their magic number is 10. In one week, they saw their division lead nearly cut in half and only took three games off that magic number.
The Dodgers went 2-4 over the last week while the Padres went 5-1. In my article last week, I mapped out every scenario where San Diego could make a comeback. Well, the only scenario was that they would get really hot while the Dodgers would get really cold.
That happened.
With the magic number being 10, that means the Dodgers need a combination of only 10 wins or Padres losses. That number really seems low, but it’s still a big one. Like I mentioned last week, the Dodgers still have a three-game series with the Padres next week. That series could ultimately decide the divsion.
The Dodgers entering that series with a 3-game lead could be a disaster. A sweep from San Diego would tie things up and with the Padres owning the season tie-breaker.
It also doesn’t help that San Diego hosts the White Sox next weekend, the worst team in baseball. You don’t want to assume anything, but I think we can all agree that series will likely be a sweep. The Padres do host the Astros for three games this week, so hopefully Houston can win some games. And yes, that is a painful thing to ask for.
Now this article isn’t all doom and gloom. I do have some good news. After tonight’s game with the Braves, the Dodgers head to Miami where they’ll take on the Marlins for three games. Entering that series, Miami will have the second worst record in all of baseball. They are 55-95. This should be a series the Dodgers sweep.
Key words. SHOULD BE
If the Dodgers can take care of business against the Marlins this week, that will knock three games off the magic number. If the Astros can help the Dodgers and take at least one game from the Padres, that would knock off another.
If the Dodgers can win tonight against the Braves, the magic number will be nine with 12 games remaining. Over the final 12 games, you’d need a combination of nine Dodgers wins and Padres losses.
While San Diego hosts the worst team in baseball over the weekend, the Dodgers will host the third worst team in the Rockies. As of right now, Colorado is right behind Miami with a 57-93 record. That should be another series the Dodgers sweep, at least you’d hope so.
With San Diego likely not losing next weekend, it’ll be imperative for the Dodgers to take as many games from the Rockies that they can.
For the sake of this article, let’s say the Dodgers don’t win tonight but they take five of six against the Marlins and Rockies. That would bring their magic number down to five. If the Padres lose just once to the Astros, it’ll be four.
They would enter the series with San Diego with a magic number of four. One win would knock out two games, but a loss would keep San Diego alive. For the Dodgers to win the division, they’d need to take two games against the Padres.
I know, I know, this is all complicated, so hopefully you’re able to follow where I’m going with all of this.
Long story short, if the Dodgers just win games they will be okay. They have the easiest 6-game schedule that you could ask for coming up. If they can’t beat up on two of the worst teams in baseball, maybe we have a bigger concern on our hands.
I’m still confident the Dodgers will win the division, but I’m not as confident as I was a week ago at this time. If the Dodgers enter that series with San Diego up at least four games, I’ll be comfortable. If they get swept they still have a one-game cushion and finish the season in Colorado, while the Padres face the D-Backs. If they win just one game in that Padres series, they will have at least a two-game lead for the final three-game series of the year against the Rockies.
I will give the Dodgers credit, it is kinda fun being this worried about the division this late into the season. Okay, maybe fun isn’t the right word because this past week hasn’t been fun. Stressful seems more appropriate.
There are 13 games left this season…. just win as many as possible!
For those interested, here is an updated look at how both teams would have to finish for San Diego to win the division.
Dodgers: 0-13 | Padres: 3-9
Dodgers: 1-12 | Padres: 4-8
Dodgers: 2-11 | Padres: 5-7
Dodgers: 3-10 | Padres: 6-6
Dodgers: 4-9 | Padres: 7-5
Dodgers: 5-8 | Padres: 8-4
Dodgers: 6-7 | Padres: 9-3
Dodgers: 7-6 | Padres: 10-2
Dodgers: 8-5 | Padres: 11-1
Dodgers: 9-4 | Padres: 12-0
Another way to think about it is that scenario where the Dodgers go 6-7 and the Padres have to go 9-3. For SD to make that happen, you'd envision them sweeping the White Sox, of course. But then they still have to win six of nine games against the Astros, Dodgers and Diamondbacks, the latter of which could be battling to stay in. The odds are stacked against the Padres winning the division, though, of course, like a probability cases, there's a chance until there's not. And one more thing: we've seen what good winning the division does the Dodgers.