Kyle Tucker - Priority No. 1
Dodgers need to go all-in
The Dodgers have won back-to-back World Series championships. They have the highest payroll in MLB history. There’s no way I can still be this greedy, right?
Well, you’re wrong.
I want the Dodgers to keep on adding. I want them to keep spending and to keep on getting better.
As we get ready to enter 2026, the Dodgers are nearly set across the board. Their rotation doesn’t need any help, though I wouldn’t mind a Tarik Skubal trade (so much greed). The bullpen looks pretty set at the moment. For the most part, they’re going to run back the same lineup from last season.
With that said, they do have one glaring hole. They need an outfielder, and pretty badly.
As things currently stand, the Dodgers have Andy Pages and Teoscar Hernandez coming back in 2026. Where they’ll be playing remains to be seen, it’s all dependent on how LA addresses their outfield.
As of now, the outfield options are Alex Call and Ryan Ward. It looks like that’ll be the left field platoon. Not the worst in all of baseball, but certainly not ideal. Tommy Edman can play center field, which would put Pages and Teo in the corners. However, Edman underwent ankle surgery this offseason and it’s unclear when he’ll be 100% ready to play CF.
Again, it’s not the WORST outfield in the sport, but the Dodgers could certainly use an upgrade. A scenario where you don’t have to worry about Edman playing CF on a repaired ankle. A scenario where you’re not relying on Call and Ward to get consistent playing time.
That scenario is Kyle Tucker.
Not only is Tucker the best player on the free agent market, he also addresses the Dodgers’ biggest need. He’s spent majority of his career in right field. He’s been great out there, including winning a Gold Glove in 2022. Not only does he address LA’s biggest need, he adds one of the better and more underrated bats in all of baseball.
For some reason, Tucker doesn’t get his flowers. He’s always been underrated, but it really feels like it’s gone too far with him. This past season, he had a “down” year according to a lot of people. Well, for him, his down year saw him post a 136 wRC+ and 4.5 fWAR in 136 games.
Oh, and that was while he dealt with a hairline fracture in his right hand. While we don’t have an exact timeframe for when the injury occurred, it’s no coincidence his numbers took a hit in the second half of the season. Through his first 79 games, Tucker owned a 3.6 fWAR, the sixth best in the majors. His 157 wRC+ also ranked sixth. He was playing at an MVP caliber level. He was on pace for over 30 home runs, 100+ RBI and 40 stolen bases.
He struggled in the second half and his numbers didn’t look MVP caliber. That shouldn’t matter. He has proven year after year he is one of the best players in the sport.
Since the start of 2021, here is where Tucker ranks all across baseball:
23.4 fWAR (10th)
143 wRC+ (7th)
134 HR (20th)
433 RBI (18th)
Mind you, his homers and RBI would be a lot higher had he played in more games. He’s played about 100 games fewer than a lot of the players ahead of him. People will say he’s injury prone, but he’s just had a couple of freak injuries. I don’t think injuries will be a concern with him.
As you can see, I’ve laid it all out on how good of a player he is. The Dodgers know this. I shouldn’t be making the case for him. Now for the biggest obstacle. The potential contract.
Reports out there say Tucker will command $300+ million and a contract that could be 8-10 years. That checks out. He’s a premiere player. He should command the biggest contract he can get. My only question is….. will someone give it to him?
As of now, I think there is only one team willing to give Tucker that kind of contract. The Toronto Blue Jays. They have been on a spending spree this offseason. They’ve been linked to him numerous times. It makes sense that they would break the bank for him.
But, if they know there isn’t another team willing to give him $300M+, why bid against themselves? Why up their offer to $350 million if they don’t have to? I firmly believe that’s why he hasn’t signed yet. I think his agent is trying to get more out of Toronto, but the Blue Jays aren’t calling his bluff. They know there isn’t a single team out there willing to give him that kind of contract.
This is where the Dodgers can strike.
Reports suggest they’re not comfortable giving him that kind of long-term contract. It makes sense for the Dodgers. They could afford it, but handing out a contract like that just doesn’t make the most sense with the current structure of this team. That doesn’t mean they can’t sign him, though.
Remember years back when the Dodgers offered Bryce Harper a four-year contract worth $180 million? They could do the same with Tucker.
The Dodgers could get creative with this, but the structure of the contract would be a shorter-term/higher AAV contract. Now, it all depends on what Tucker wants. If he wants the job security of an 8-10 year contract, signing with Toronto is a no-brainer. Collect your $300 million and play there until you retire. If you want a chance at making even more money, the Dodgers’ offer is definitely enticing.
Let’s say Tucker gets the exact same offer the Dodgers gave to Harper. That means Tucker would re-enter free agency for his age-33 season. If he continues to be an MVP caliber player, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to get $120M+ when he re-enters free agency four years from now, especially with the way contracts will be looking in 2030.
The Dodgers could also attach opt-outs to his contract, similar to the Alex Bregman contract with the Red Sox last offseason. If you remember, Bregman signed a 3/120M contract and opted out this offseason. He hasn’t signed a contract yet, but all signs point to him earning more money this offseason than he was offered last offseason. So, he got a bigger contract and a pretty nice payday in 2025. That could look enticing for Tucker.
If he goes out and has the season we know he’s capable of in 2026, a $300M+ contract could very well be waiting for him once again next offseason. Again, this is all dependent on what Tucker truly wants long-term. If he’s content with securing his $300M, he can do that now. If he wants to bet on himself and have a chance to earn more money, the Dodgers would be the best path.
The 2027 free agent class looks terrible. Tucker would be by far the best player on the market. If he has a 5-win season and hits 25+ homers and stays healthy next year, there will definitely be a market for him. Same thing in 2028. The free agent class for hitters looks weak. If Tucker has two great years, he can still earn a huge payday.
Also, this really seems crazy to say, but the spotlight won’t be as bright for Tucker in LA as it would be in Toronto. How can that be? Well, in Toronto, he’d be the GO-TO guy besides Vlad Jr. The expectations would be sky-high for him, especially after signing a $300M+ contract. He would HAVE to be a superstar for Toronto.
For LA? He’d be like the 4th option in that lineup. He wouldn’t be counted on to be THE GUY. He would just be a welcoming addition to the already stacked lineup. If Tucker were to finish his 2026 campaign with 25 homers, 25 stolen bases and a 130 wRC+, would any Dodgers fans can be upset? Well, there would obviously be some, but the answer is no. If he posted numbers like that in Toronto, people would say he underperformed to his contract and would be calling him a bust.
Tucker would be a nice compliment to LA’s lineup. In Toronto, he would be heavily relied on to contribute and be the No. 1 or No. 2 option in that lineup.
I’m not sure how many years the Dodgers would be comfortable giving Tucker. What is their definition of “short-term”? You would think the cap would be four years, like the Harper offer. Or, maybe it could be five years, with more opt-outs? Only the Dodgers know this.
I don’t fault them for standing clear of 8-10 years, but being aggressive with a 3-5 year contract needs to be their biggest priority. Tucker solves your biggest issue and adds an incredible bat to the already dangerous lineup.
Despite what the Dodgers are comfortable doing, it all comes down to what Tucker wants. I laid out both cases. They both seem pretty enticing if you ask me. As every day passes and Tucker remains unsigned to that $300M+ contract, I think it only benefits the Dodgers.
Let’s say it’s January 16 and you have only two offers. One offer is 10 years/$300 million and the other is 4 years/$180 million with multiple opt-outs. What offer do you think looks better?
We’ll see.
the athletic podcast guys called Tucker the best number six hitter in MLB, in the context of why he'd be a good fit on the dodgers. good for him, anyway. in my estimation the team has too many outfield prospects that are very close to being ready to give out even a medium term deal.
limping along with the current setup is fine, especially if Pages continues to mature and Edman is capable of playing center and Teo is more healthy than he was in 2025 (he's skipping the WBC to get healthy, which I take as a sign he knows how his 2025 went.)
"necessary" is usually the wrong frame for baseball free agency, and it's especially incorrect for the dodgers. it's obvious Tucker isn't necessary but would make the team better, but it's more clear to me there are enough other concerns that the team should prioritize that unless he wants to ring chase for a year or two, which all indicate is not the case, they should pass.
I’m fine with the short term deal with opt outs. My only concern is if in a few years the Dodgers have a crammed outfield with the aging Teoscar contract and 3 MLB ready top OF prospects in the minors