Mailbag Monday: Future of Dodgers' rotation is BRIGHT
Answering questions from my paid subscribers!
We’re back!
I don’t remember when the last mailbag was, but it’s been a while. All I know is, a LOT has happened between mailbags. With the first spring training game later this week, I felt that now is a perfect time to bring them back!
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Hayden L — Brasier looked real good with the Dodgers, as you mentioned, do you think they look to do closer by committee or do they give the job to someone specific like Brasier or Phillips?
I think the Dodgers are going to do what they did last season. Personally, I think that’s the smartest decision. You won’t find a bigger Kenley Jansen supporter than me. I would love nothing more than for him to return to LA and be our closer again. With that being said, I think it’s more beneficial to the team to NOT have a designated closer.
We’ve seen this more nowadays, but having your better pitchers throw in the higher leverage situations is more important. Sometimes it might not be the ninth inning. It might be the eighth inning, or even the seventh. I think Evan Phillips will lead the team in saves by the time the season ends, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are 10 different players who record a save in 2024. Last season the Dodgers had 11 players record a save, with Phillips leading the way with 24.
If I were to guess, Phillips will finish with around 20, while there might be five players who finish with at least five.
MJ — I have 2! Will we bring Kiké back??? Please say yes. And thoughts on Margot, feel like he’s nowhere??
I hate to break this to you, but he isn’t coming back. I’m not going to say it’s 100 percent certain, but I’ll put the odds at 1.5%. The Dodgers’ 40-man roster is full, as well as their position player group. As things currently stand, there’s no room for him on the active roster. There would have to be a major injury or two, or a trade.
I’m personally excited for Manuel Margot. He’s the forgotten man this offseason. He came over in the Tyler Glasnow trade. He’ll be a depth piece for the outfield who will hit well against lefties and play above average defense. You can’t ask for more than that. His splits were also weird the last couple of years, as he hit really well away from Tropicana Field. Who knows, maybe he’ll be a Jason Heyward 2.0!
Alex Khalifa — Is it crazy that I am especially worried about fans being priced out this season despite having the largest stadium in baseball and hosting 81 home games per season?
It’s not crazy. I have talked about this with my girlfriend numerous times this offseason, but how does the average family afford a game anymore? The cheapest ticket you’ll find for this season will probably be at least $50 after fees. Throw in $40 for parking. $10 for a Dodger Dog. $10 for a Coke. Merchandise. 50/50 raffle tickets. You name it. It’s crazy.
What’s even crazier is that every Dodgers game is going to be a sellout this year, so the prices definitely won’t keep fans away. The Dodgers might average 50,000+ fans a game and surpass four million total for the season. People clearly have no problem paying to go to a game, and that’s totally okay. If I could go to every game I definitely would. But it’s certainly not the luxury it once was as recent as five years ago.
PJA — With all the pitching the Dodgers have acquired this off season, how do you think all that pitching talent will shake out on the farm in '24 and '25? Seems like there's lot of trade bait there. Thanks!
The Dodgers’ rotation has the chance to be scary in 2024, but especially 2025. As of now, you’d have to pencil in Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Miller. Right there is an insane top four.
You then have the question mark in Clayton Kershaw. As you can see, there’s not a lot of room for all the young arms the Dodgers have waiting in the minors. Entering the season, guys like Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Kyle Hurt, Nick Frasso and River Ryan are all names who could be possibilities in 2025. Not to mention, there might be a few who emerge as well that aren’t currently on our radar.
Clearly, there isn’t room for everyone. You obviously don’t want to just trade to trade, but the Dodgers definitely have the pieces to help build their current roster, should they choose.
Andres Madrigal — Barring any injuries to the Dodgers rotation, when Kershaw returns, where does he slot into the rotation? Is there a possibility they expand it to a 6-man rotation to give every pitcher extended rest? Thank you
Stan — What are your thoughts on the Dodgers starting with a 6 man rotation, and what is the best strategy going forward given that many of the potential starters have injury history or pitched in Japan?
With Ohtani joining the rotation next season, it’s likely we’ll see the Dodgers turn to a 6-man rotation. The reason it’ll work next season is because Ohtani is a two-way player, so he technically counts as a hitter, meaning the Dodgers will be able to have 13 pitchers on their roster.
Since Ohtani won’t be pitching this season, the Dodgers don’t have that luxury. If they go with a 6-man rotation, that means they’ll have one less bullpen arm available. In today’s game, you need MORE bullpen arms… not less! Because of that, we won’t see a 6-man rotation in 2024.
That doesn’t mean the Dodgers won’t creative and utilize it at times. I’m sure there will be times where a guy like Michael Grove gets a start, pushing everyone back a day. Or there’s a bullpen game. Stuff like that. It’ll happen, but won’t be “official”.
If everyone is healthy, I’m not sure what the Dodgers do with their rotation. Obviously, the odds of everyone being healthy at the same time is pretty slim. Kershaw won’t be ready until August at the earliest, so we won’t have to worry about him for a while. Not to mention, you have a number of guys with an injury history in Glasnow, Buehler and Paxton.
I’d love for all of them to be healthy the entire season, but we know that likely won’t happen. If it does happen, somehow….. what a great problem to have! You can never have too many arms.
Marilyn Fisher — What should the Dodgers do with Vargas? At this point he doesn’t have room on the roster.
This is such a tough position for Vargas. He’d be on the Opening Day roster for 29 other teams, most likely. But there’s no room for him. There will likely be an injury that allows him to get called up and receive playing time…. but how long will that last before he’s sent back down?
He’s still only 24 and doesn’t have much big league experience, so he might still have some solid trade value. I just don’t personally see any value in keeping him. With the infield set for the next couple of seasons (Freeman, Betts, Lux, Muncy) there’s just no room for him. Sure, he’s learning left field and that may go well for him, but there’s no room for him out there as well. Maybe full time left fielder in 2025? But that’s a maybe.
The Dodgers hope to have a title window open for the next decade. But this window you have right now with Betts/Freeman/Ohtani all still in their prime is one you need to really capitalize on. I don’t think Vargas is part of that plan.
I think the best bet is you hope he continues to thrive in the minors and you can then trade him at the deadline for whatever big league pieces you need.
Eddie Becker — When are you planning a trip up to Fresno to attend my tailgate and get a true Bulldog Fan Tailgate experience???
If my Arizona State Sun Devils make it up for a game you know I’m there!
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Question for the next mailbag: Who is the best prospect the Dodgers reasonably passed on? Dodgers have drafted better than anyone, but who is a realistic pick they passed up and what logic played into it? Hindsight's 20/20, but imagine if the Dodgers drafted Gunnar Henderson instead of Hoese or Busch? Both received higher bonuses...was he ever in the mix? Was it because Hoese and Busch were more big league ready? I'm sure there's a million more and I'm mostly talking about first/second rounders where there's more predictability.
They are too afraid to play us in Fresno especially since we beat them 29-0 last season in their home stadium! I’m planning a trip to the big house to watch my Bulldogs get spanked by Michigan in the first game of the upcoming season! Come with???