Mailbag Monday: Gavin Stone's future in rotation
Answering questions from paid subscribers!
Happy Monday, everyone!
Dodgers are off to Minnesota for a three-game series with the Twins before returning to LA. Despite dropping two of three this weekend, they still own a comfortable three-game lead in the division.
Let’s open up the mailbag and answer some questions!
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Tom — Will they go to a six man rotation when Walker comes back?
I think once Walker Buehler comes back they are going to send Gavin Stone down. I think the Dodgers prefer to go with the “unofficial” six-man rotation, where they go with a bullpen game every now and then to give guys rest. Gavin Stone’s numbers haven’t been great to start the season, but his advanced numbers suggest he’s been very unlucky. Despite that, I think the Dodgers would prefer to give him consistent starts down in the minors.
Art Remnet — Thoughts on projected moves: Walker Buehler to the rotation for the next homestand or next road trip? Stone to the pen or AAA? I see promise in Stone as he has been unlucky too. But promise can be worked on on the farm rather in the bigs, if he can't come up to speed. Grove to AAA or is there a trade to be made? I'm not sure why he's still with the big club. Your thoughts?
I think Walker Buehler will make two more starts down in the minors. He’s going to make one more start later this week and the Dodgers said they’ll decide after that, but I think they play it safe and give him one more after that. If that’s the case, it’ll be another two weeks before we see him return. Like I mentioned earlier, I think the Dodgers will send Stone down once Buehler is ready to go.
I would ASSUME Michael Grove will be sent to the minors, but with the way he continues to stay with the big league club, you can’t put anything past the team. Kyle Hurt should have gotten the call-up already, but he continues to spend his time in OKC. I doubt they find a trade partner with another team for Grove, but who knows maybe a team out there still believes in his upside!
Marilyn Fisher — What are your thoughts on the defense? I know Sunday wasn’t great but it seems like there are mental errors every game. How do we improve? Also, do you think Stone will last in the bigs? He seems like he has great stuff but takes a lot of pitches to get someone out.
Overall I’m actually okay with the defense. There have been a couple errors here and there, but I think the infield has held their own. Muncy and Lux have actually looked better than advertised out there, though that’s not saying a whole lot!
I still believe in Stone. I mentioned it earlier, but he’s been unlucky this year. If you take a quick glance at his numbers, you likely won’t be too impressed (4.50 ERA & 1.88 WHIP). Those numbers look awful! But take a look at these numbers….
2.59 xERA, 1.93 FIP, 12.4 K/9, .423 BABIP
The expected numbers say Stone has been really good. Plus, look at his high strikeout numbers. He’s been just extremely unlucky.
Also, take a look at that last stat. When hitters put the ball in play, they have a .423 average. That is just INSANE. Nearly half the balls put in play result in base hits. That isn’t supposed to happen. For reference, the worst BABIP in baseball last season was .330, which is nearly 100 points lower than where Stone is at now… and that was the WORST!
I think he’ll be just fine and I’ve been really impressed with his stuff this season.
Rick Sapp — Do you think Gavin Lux’s hitting potential justifies the lineup accommodation of moving Betts and Rojas from their highest and best use positions to enable LUX to play second?
I personally don’t. I UNDERSTAND why the Dodgers are doing it, but the leash has to be getting short with Gavin Lux. Now, I will give credit where credit is due. He’s actually graded pretty solid defensively at second base this season and hasn’t been awful. So he’s doing fine there. The issue is that his bat isn’t helping his case of keeping him out there every day.
Very, very small sample size, but Lux is hitting .156 with a .393 OPS and 15 wRC+ this season. For reference, a 100 wRC+ is league average. I know spring training numbers don’t matter, but if you combine those numbers, Lux has only two extra-base hits in 74 plate appearances. He just offers no power. This was something we already kinda knew, but it’s been completely wiped out from his game. His hits consist of infield singles or turning bloop singles into doubles. He’s also not drawing walks at the rate he did in the past.
Again, a 74 PA sample size is SO SMALL, so I want to give him at least until the end of the month when we’ll have a greater sample size. But with at bats I’ve seen, Lux just looks horrific at the plate. Miguel Rojas has looked a lot better, and I think he should be the starting shortstop with Betts over at second base until Lux can prove he can hit at a consistent basis.
Most power rankings have LAD #1 or #2. This one in the SD Union Tribune: has the Dodgers #8. It’s not home cooking as tge Padres come in at #21.