Mailbag Monday: How concerned should we be?
Answering your questions!
Last week sucked! The Dodgers went 2-4 and had one of the biggest blowout losses in the history of the franchise.
The good news is that this is a brand new week. Even better news is that the Rockies come to town. The Dodgers have an opportunity to get back on track by facing one of the worst teams in all of baseball.
Despite a rough couple of weeks, the Dodgers are still 11-6. Funny how it feels like the sky is falling, right?
Let’s get to the mailbag!
Andrew Countis — Greetings from the Uber lot outside the stadium after Sunday’s loss. You’ll publish the mailbag before I get out of here. Here’s my question: when a team gets embarrassed, like the Dodgers did in historic fashion on Saturday night, do they make any changes in routine or anything else for the next day? Is it just put it past you and move on?
Hopefully you are out of the parking lot by now! And honestly, I don’t think there’s anything they do, at least this early in the season. The season is longggggggggg. You’re bound to have a clunker every now and then. I think you just try your best to delete it from your system and forget it ever happened. With that said, it would have been nice to see the offense come out a lot more fired up on Sunday, but that’s baseball for ya.
Marilyn Fisher — What happened to our offense and what will kickstart it? Also, how long do we go with Muncy? He looks lost.
I’m not going to post all of the numbers, but the offense has been really, really bad for about two weeks now. Ever since the start of the Braves series, LA’s offense ranks in the bottom third of the league for nearly every important category. Since they left Los Angeles for their first roadtrip, they’ve actually scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball. I know it’s only a 9-game sample size, but this offense is way too good to ever have a stretch that long with the second worst offense.
We already know the bottom third of the lineup has been terrible, but for the most part everyone else hasn’t done much as well. I think this is just one of those funks that every team goes through during a season. It just seems a lot worse because it’s so early in the season so it’s a lot more evident.
In regards to Muncy, I’m guessing they give him all year unless it gets really bad. The Dodgers aren’t going to flat out bench him, but as each game passes we’re getting closer to giving other guys more opportunities. The sample size is so small, so I’m not all that concerned with his numbers, but the advanced metrics are worrisome.
What made Muncy so good over the years was his eye at the plate. He was always near the top of the leaderboard when it came to walk and chase rate. His percentiles are significantly down this year. His approach at the plate has been different. Muncy’s expected wOBA, BA and SLG are also way down as well. He’s not even in the top half.
Despite the bad numbers, I would have felt okay about him had the advanced numbers painted a different picture. They don’t. They suggest he’s been as bad as advertised.
Again, the sample size is still so small, but his decline is definitely something we gotta monitor moving forward.
MJ Vera — Taking out all hyperbole, which I'm not sure we're capable of as Dodgers fans, how long would the team's play over the first couple weeks have to continue before you would genuinely be concerned about it?
I’ll be the first to admit I’m very dramatic when the Dodgers play poorly. I know that baseball is a crazy sport and teams struggle. I just expect such greatness from this team it’s hard to see them look terrible for a stretch. As of now, I’m not concerned with a bad two-week stretch.
I think for me to start being genuinely concerned with how they’re playing would be how they look after about 40 games. They’ve still only played 17 games, that’s only 10.5 percent of the season. 40 games would be the 1/4 mark of the season and I think by then we’ll have a good understanding of this team. So, I guess around the middle of May I’ll get back to you with my level of concern!
Travis — Last year the Dodgers were 11-6 on April 13. By the end of April, they were 19-13. In 2023, 7-7 on April 13, 16-13 on April 30. Fewer games played in 2022 (lockout), but they were 3-2 on April 13, 13-7 on April 30.
My point? I hate April baseball. The Dodgers are usually slow out of the gate. That 8-0 start was an anomaly, and it's added to already sky-high expectations. Hot starts by other NL West teams have primed the fan base to freak out some.
I really don't pay much attention to standings until June. Having said all of that, the one concern I think you mentioned is defense. Edman is clearly their best defensive centerfielder. How much longer do you think they keep Kim down at AAA before giving him a shot to hold down second with Edman in center? And if he does not hit, will his defense at second be enough to run him out there every day once the rest of the lineup is hitting?
It’s actually pretty remarkable how “bad” the Dodgers are in April. Obviously a lot of teams would take those records, but the Dodgers don’t dominate like they do during other parts of the season.
Before the season started, I was all in favor of keeping Kim down in OKC for at least a couple of months while he figured things out. Well, if you’ve been following the minor league recaps, he’s been fantastic down there. I’d like to see him up now, whether it be at second base or center field. He could rotate with Edman between positions.
I’m over the Andy Pages experiment, but it sounds like the Dodgers are going to have a long leash with him. Dave Roberts was asked about it and said he wants to give him 150 plate appearances. Pages has 55 plate appearances so far, so we’re a little more than 1/3 of the way there.
To answer your last question, I don’t think Kim needs to hit to be valuable. His value will come on defense and on the bases. Whatever production he provides the Dodgers will be a bonus. If he can hit .240 with a wRC+ above 80, I think the Dodgers will gladly take that. Hell, they essentially took that from Lux for so many years. Plus, it would certainly be an upgrade over what they’re currently getting with Pages.
From the "We can dream, can't we?" Dept:
If they're going to bring up Kim and move Edman to CF--where he's desperately needed--then they should also move Betts to 2B (where he belongs) and slot in Kim at SS, while also giving Rojas and Kike some spot starts as well.
Because on a team with Edman, Kim, Rojas and Kike, Mookie is the fifth-best defensive shortstop, and indulging his ego trip alongside an equally shaky Max Muncy (and in front of a defensively compromised Michael Conforto) makes less and less sense by the day....