Mailbag Monday: Leash for Muncy & Conforto
Answering your questions!
Happy Monday, everyone!
It feels like it’s been a while, but the Dodgers finally won a series! The Marlins are coming to town for three games and then the team hits the road again.
Time to open up the mailbag! As always, thank you to everyone who asked a question this week!
Stan B — With Andy Pages having the hottest bat in the lineup and Kiké Hernandez swinging a hot bat of late, do you see Andrew and Doc finding a way to keep them playing every day? Could Kiké be a full time replacement for Max and/or Conforto until they find their swing?
I don’t think anything has changed for Pages, he’ll continue to be in there every day. With Kiké I think the same can be said as well and his role won’t change. His role and his value is from being a utility guy who can play when and wherever is needed. I know we’re down on both Muncy and Conforto this year, but Kiké hasn’t been all that great either. He still has a .650 OPS and 83 OPS+. They’re paying Conforto $17 million this year (yikes!) I think they’re gonna continue to give him consistent playing time.
OhioDodger — How long is the leash on Muncy and Conforto?
I’m guessing very long. The Dodgers don’t have a guaranteed upgrade over either player. While I think certain players in the minors should get their opportunities, they won’t unless there are injuries to Muncy and Conforto.
Muncy showed as recently as last season that he’s a really good hitter still. His Baseball Savant page also shows that his expected numbers are a lot better, so those should hopefully balance at some point. The difference between his slugging and expected slugging percentage is the fourth biggest in baseball. The difference between his wOBA (Quality of Contact + K + BB) and expected wOBA is the 11th biggest difference. I believe Muncy will turn things around and the advanced analytics suggest that.
Conforto’s advanced metrics aren’t as encouraging, but I still think he’ll turn things around. We have to remember that he was great during the spring and through the first 10 games of the season. The Dodgers will continue to give those two opportunities, at the very least until the trade deadline.
Bob Lowe — How do you rate Mookie at SS so far?
The eye test tells me he’s been great. I think there’s been only one play this year where I said out loud “What the hell are you doing!”
So the eye test passes, but do the actually numbers?
Betts is currently tied for fifth in baseball among shortstops with three defensive runs saved. He’s tied for fourth with two outs above average. Considering where he was at last year, we’ll gladly take those numbers!
Jim Ruland — I heard Rick Monday say on the broadcast Saturday that Pages leads the league in batting average against breaking balls. (I think that's the stat.) If Monday knows this then presumably so do the pitchers, so why do they keep serving it up? He's obviously seeing the ball very well right now.
I can’t find the leaderboard for that exact stat, but Pages is hitting .357 on breaking balls this year so I’m guessing that’s gotta be near the top! Pages has been great over these last few days. I don’t know how many hits of his have come against breaking balls, but I’m guessing a lot. There’s a good chance a week ago he was hitting .180 against them and a hot week really juiced those numbers. I’m guessing pitchers are going to be a lot more aware moving forward. Well, with the Marlins coming into town this week, maybe not!
Travis — As it stands now, Yoshi and Roki are our Friday and Saturday starters, going once a week to keep them on a schedule like they had in Japan. I can see them continuing this with Roki in his first year. Do you see a point this year where they stretch out Yoshi to go through a "normal" rotation cycle this year?
This is actually a great question, and I’m not sure if it has been brought up yet by the media with Dave or Yamamoto. Honestly, I don’t think they will have a normal rotation cycle, especially once Ohtani returns to the mound. With Ohtani pitching again, the Dodgers will be utilizing a 6-man rotation, so the weekly schedule will make sense. It’s more difficult now because of the 5-man rotation where there’s more time in between starts. Once we see the 6-man implemented I don’t think we’ll see Ohtani/Sasaki/Yamamoto ever on “regular rest”.