Miguel Vargas hasn't met expectations in 2023
He's been arguably the worst hitter on the Dodgers
Before everyone gets out their pitchforks, let me begin this article by saying this.
It’s very, very, very early in his career.
Okay, now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, we can begin.
2023 has been a disappointing season for Miguel Vargas. We’re approaching the halfway mark and you can make the case he’s been the worst hitter on the Dodgers.
Entering the season, the rookie was given the keys to be LA’s starting second baseman. He was coming off a 2022 campaign in which he was named the Triple-A Player of the Year by Baseball America. For OKC in 2022, Vargas hit .304/.402/.511 with 17 home runs, 82 RBI, and a 129 wRC+.
Vargas has hit for every affiliate he’s suited up for. In 2021, he hit .314 in High-A and .321 in Double-A. Between both affiliates, he posted a 141 wRC+. In 2019, he hit .325 in Low-A and then .284 in High-A.
He’s never hit for power, as his previous career-high was 17 homers in the minors. The Dodgers weren’t expecting him to come in and slug, but they were expecting his ability to hit for average to carry over from the minors.
Again, it’s early in his career. He only has 324 career plate appearances. Things can certainly change. He can be a career .300 hitter. But for now, he’s the worst hitter on the Dodgers and has been disappointing, especially given the high expectations surrounding him.
“I don’t think he’s gotten on a roll,” manager Dave Roberts said to reporters. “It’s the first time, I’d assume, he’s struggled with the bat. It’s interesting for Miguel. The thing we could bet on was his bat to ball [skills]. Getting hits and some on-base. Right now, there’s some pressing.”
As of right now, Vargas is barely hitting above the Mendoza Line. He’s currently hitting .201, the 10th best on the team. With a wRC+ of 86, the only players on the team with lower marks are Miguel Rojas and Austin Barnes. Those players weren’t expected to contribute on offense the way Vargas was, though.
It’s not like Vargas has been unlucky. The advanced numbers don’t support him. Vargas hasn’t been hitting the ball hard at all and his expected numbers are anything but encouraging.
He’s walking at a great rate and his strikeout/chase numbers are solid. That’s about it.
The Dodgers have had the luxury of not needing his production at the plate. Sure, they could desperately use anything from him offensively, but he hasn’t been costing the team. His fWAR is only 0.1, so he hasn’t really helped the team either. I mean my fWAR is 0.0 and I haven’t even suited up for the Dodgers yet.
For Vargas, the last three weeks have been brutal for him. Over his last 15 games, the rookie is hitting .065. He’s 3-for-46. His wRC+ during his stretch is -26. Oof!
Currently, Vargas is in the middle of a 1-for-33 stretch. Things just aren’t working out at the plate for him. I guess if you want a silver lining, it’s that he’s striking out only 19 percent of the time during this run. So at least he’s putting the ball in play.
This stretch isn’t a surprise, considering Vargas has been really streaky this year. He had a great first week of the season, but struggled significantly after a few games.
From April 7-May 1, Vargas appeared in 23 games. During that stretch, he hit .184 with a .570 OPS. His wRC+ was 58. Vargas had only six extra base-hits during that near one-month span.
Vargas actually heated up at the plate after that. From May 2 through June 7, Vargas appeared in 29 games and hit .260 with an OPS of .856. His wRC+ during that run was 130. That was the Vargas the Dodgers thought they’d be getting this year.
Unfortunately, he has cooled off significantly since.
“The biggest surprise is he’s missing a lot of pitches that are in the strike zone,” Roberts said to reporters. “At this level, when you get pitches in the hitting zone and you miss them, that’s a hard way to live.
“There’s some mechanical. There’s a little late in getting ready. Trying to do too much pulling the baseball as opposed to locking hits.”
With Vargas struggling, the Dodgers have an interesting decision on their hands. Continue to run him out there or give another rookie a shot in Michael Busch. Another top prospect in LA’s system, Busch has looked just okay in his limited chances this season. He’s filled in at third base recently for Max Muncy, but has second base experience in the minors.
Over his last 12 games, Busch has hit .229 while posting an 83 wRC+. That doesn’t scream “Give him the job!” but you definitely want to see what you have from the 25-year-old, who was just named the No. 38 prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline. Plus, it’s a lot better than what you’ve been seeing from Vargas.
With Vargas struggling and Busch likely getting an extended look, it sounds like he’ll be given more opportunities moving forward.
“For me, I’m going to be more mindful of trying to get [Vargas] days off,” Roberts said. “Try to get him back on track. Still trying to figure it out.”
I believe in Vargas and his talent. This is a guy who has hit literally everywhere. We’ve seen flashes of him actually doing it at the big league level. The issue is that it’ll be for a few games and then he’ll cool off. He’ll hit for a few more games and then cool off again.
His season-high for consecutive games with a hit is seven. If you take out that seven-game stretch, his average on the season is .180. Outside of that streak, Vargas has managed a three-game hitting streak only three other times on the season.
Again, for a guy who was expected to at least hit for average, you’re hoping for a lot more three-game hitting streaks.
Here’s to hoping Vargas can turn things around at the plate. He’s only 23. He has all the talent in the world. I believe in him and I know the Dodgers do too.
Another reminder that hitting in AAA is just a lot different than in MLB.
J-Hair mentioned on SNLA the other day that Vargas has revamped his swing since AAA. He said it looks more like JD Martinez's swing and wish he would go back to his swing in AAA because that's where he had success. Did he tinker with his swing too much while training with JD in the offseason? I hope Vargas figures it out, I'm rooting for the kid.