I was wrong.
Following the Dodgers’ hot stretch at the end of June, I made a pretty bold statement. I said the division looked like it was all but wrapped up.
Now, in my defense, I didn’t say it WAS wrapped up. I said it LOOKED wrapped up! If that helps my case at all.
While that seems like a dumb thing to say now, you have to remember the circumstances. The Dodgers had a nine-game lead in the NL West. There were 74 games remaining. FanGraphs gave the Dodgers a 98.4 percent chance of winning the division. Their betting odds were at like -10000.
Barring a complete collapse, the division was secured.
Well, that collapse happened.
Since July 4, the Dodgers have been one of the worst teams in all of baseball. They’ve gone 12-21, their worst 33-game stretch since the end of the 2017 season. Their division lead has not only shrunk, they’ve completely lost it. The Dodgers now trail the Padres by one game in the NL West.
Over the course of about five weeks, the Dodgers allowed the Padres to make up 10 games on the Dodgers. That isn’t supposed to happen. A nine-game lead should be comfortable for a team like the Dodgers on Opening Day. A lead that big more than halfway through the season should be impossible to lose.
Well, the Dodgers did the impossible.
Now, credit where credit is due, the Padres have played a large part in this as well. Since July 4 they have been one of the best teams in all of baseball and can’t lose. In order for the division lead to be blown, two things need to happen. They would have made up some ground either way, it just doesn’t help that the Dodgers have completely forgotten how to win.
Even if the Dodgers would have been one game under .500 (16-17) during this 33-game slide, their lead in the division would still be three games. It literally needed to be an absolute worst-case scenario for this to happen the way it did.
Now, despite the sky falling, I still have some good news for you. LA trails the division by only one game. There is still a lot of baseball to be played. With that being said, these next 10 days are arguably the most important days over the remainder of the season. They’ll play the Padres three times this weekend and then three times next weekend. After that, these two teams don’t play each other the rest of the way.
This could be both a good and a bad thing for the Dodgers.
It could be great for the Dodgers because they have a chance to reclaim the division lead. By taking a couple of games against San Diego they’ll be right back in front. Whether or not the Dodgers take either series, the most important thing is that they win at least two of the six games.
Why two?
Well, the Dodgers are 5-2 against the Padres so far this season. In order to win the season series, you gotta win a total of seven games. By winning the season series, you own the tiebreaker at the end of the season. So, if LA is able to win just two games against San Diego, they’ll own a pretty massive tiebreaker.
By owning the tiebreaker, this essentially gives the Dodgers an extra game in the standings. Let me explain.
Let’s say the Dodgers and Padres are tied entering September. With the tiebreaker, LA theoretically has a one-game lead. If the season were to end in a tie, LA wins the division. The Dodgers still benefit from being tied. If the Dodgers have a one-game lead in the division with one game left in the season, they’ll win the divison.
So if LA owns the tiebreaker and has a three-game lead, it’s technically a four-game lead. Hopefully all of this makes sense!
As long as the Dodgers can win a couple of games, they should be fine. Going 6-0 or 5-1 would be ideal, but I’d be perfectly okay with going 3-3. Hell, it wouldn’t be my preference, but 2-4 wouldn’t be that bad either. It wouldn’t be great, but I can’t stress how important it is that the Dodgers at least find a way to manage to get that tiebreaker. If they get it, I’ll feel a lot better.
The Dodgers have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in baseball. Their opposition has a .468 winning percentage and that is with six games against the Padres. If the Dodgers can survive San Diego, their schedule gets incredible easy to close the year.
They have seven games remaining against the Rockies, who have the worst record in all of baseball by far. They also have seven games remaining against the Giants, who seem to be in a freefall since the end of June. Staying in the division, LA also plays the DBacks six more times. This isn’t the same Arizona team from earlier in the year, as they traded away a lot of their talent.
The Dodgers have a lot of games against bad opponents. They just need to capitalize.
This recent stretch by the Dodgers has been embarrassing. We’re not used to seeing them suck like this for this long. Despite the horrific month, they’re still only one game out of the division. They control their own destiny. Hopefully this has been the wake up call they desperately needed and can start playing like the team we know they’re capable of playing like.
Yeah, it's almost like a shrewd front-office executive could've seen this team going sideways for a month (and for many of the problems with this poorly constructed roster, much longer than that) and addressed even some of the many issues that his roster construction and lineup decisions (arrived at with Doc, sure, but let's be real) at the deadline.
Surely, the Dodgers--so flush with prospect capital that MLB Pipeline just anointed them TODAY as the best system in the sport--would take advantage of the fact that they don't need to be overly reliant on the farm to replenish the 26-man, and paid what it cost to acquire the table-setting corner outfielder and difference-making bullpen arm (or really, two) that this team needed to keep pace with the NL's best teams. Because that's what you do when you remain in a Betts/Freeman contention window that's closing faster than most perhaps thought it would: You do what it takes to make a team that you built poorly, and make it better.
And no, the Scott and Yates signings aren't AF's fault, beyond perhaps the reliance in the pen (and across the roster) on older players not to break down or even begin to show their age. Still, the signings haven't worked, and so--even if it hurts--AF needed to address the problems and fix them.
And he didn't.
And that will never, ever make sense.
1951. July 4th Dodgers up by 8.5 games. The year Giant's Bobby Thompson's home run was heard around the world? Watch Mash's Season 9 ""A War for All Seasons." Let me make this closer. Back when the Dodgers lost the season series and last couple of games to the Cubs I said here Roberts played for the next series saving his best RPs for bottom of the pen choices who lost the lead. When they lost the season series to the Mets, I rang the fire alarm. About 6 weeks ago I said (several gave "LIKES" thank you) the Dodgers had no sense of "URGENCY." A word repeated today because it's the same word you heard this week by just about every Dodger Fan, including Dave Roberts. At the Trading Deadline I wrote about how the Dodgers did not read the room. Traded for what was IL damaged goods instead of adding a little more and getting Jhoan. Don't give them an out and say the Twins may not of wanted what the Dodgers had. They took 2 prospect- catcher with zero MLB experience and a RHP. In Oklahoma sat- Hunter and take your pick of multiple SPs, throw in Outman, and a box of Dodger Dogs. Check Trade sites. It beats the Phillies offer by a mile. Even grab Bader. Now we are worried about making sure we take the Padres Season Series? Look at the overall. Dodgers sit 5th of 6 playoff teams with the 3.5 behind Mets 6. 1-2 to 7th Reds. Every team ahead and right behind them either already won the season series or 1-2 to Phillies who have what closer? Jhoan. Sometimes you take the best player to keep the opposition from getting them-especially when the player has seasons of team control. Time to quit making excuses for the Dodgers. Face it. This team, Roberts and the front office at trade deadline have been on cruise control believing their own press since opening day. A great shot at repeating and cruise controlled theirselves into a possible Visitor through -not the WS, but even to October. Too late to read the room. The time for urgency to climb over the entire league starts Friday-or wait until next year. Else that back-to-back season has to wait until year after Walk-Out if it happens else that Back-to-Back will have another 2020 asterisk. No excuses- "The Dodgers blew the Trade Deadline. They didn't read the room. And they have been and are still resting their chances on their own press." Will my introduction at the end of the year be "76 Reds meet 25 Dodgers" or "1951 meet 2025."