Mailbag Tuesday: Is Will Smith a future Hall of Famer?
Answering questions from paid subscribers!
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Greg — How long do the Dodgers keep CT3 in the lineup? Ever since Pages has been playing on a regular basis we’ve been playing better. I can’t see them sending Pages down when Heyward returns.
I think at this point Chris Taylor is only going to play a handful of times a week. Since April 19, Taylor has gotten only two starts. The other times he came in because the Dodgers had a pretty big lead. If he’s getting 1-2 starts a week, that’s totally okay with me. I said this last week, but I still believe in Taylor’s bat and think he’ll find himself. If he’s only seeing 10 plate appearances a week, that won’t hurt the Dodgers too much.
Alex Khalifa — Is Will Smith a future Hall of Famer?
This is actually a great question. I was thinking a lot about this when he signed the extension. He’s certainly on a great trajectory. My only concerns are with his age and position longevity. Smith is already 29 years old. Sure, he could have a great stretch of seasons coming up, but he’s already closing in on 30. Next, he’s likely not going to stick at catcher for the duration of his contract. The fewer games he plays behind the plate will hurt his chances. I think for him to have a legitimate shot, he’ll have to finish his career with at least 250+ home runs and maybe be close to 2,000 hits.
For example, there are only six players in MLB history who have played 70 percent or more of their games at catcher who have hit at least 250 home runs and recorded 1,800 or more hits. All of them are Hall of Famers. I think Smith will be able to reach 250 home runs, it’s just the hits that will be questionable. He’s currently at 473 now, so in order to reach 1,800, he’d have to average about 130 hits a season for the next decade. That seems doable, but he’s surpassed 130 hits only once in his career.
As of right now, there are 91 catchers who have posted Smith’s exact numbers for their career. With every hit, home run and RBI he has, that list will slowly begin to shrink. Of those 91 players, Smith’s OPS+ of 128 ranks him the fifth highest.
Long story short, it’s definitely possible. With his contract, he’s got another 10 years in Dodger blue. He’s just going to have to be really damn good over these next few years if he wants a shot. I sure hope it all pans out and the Dodgers are retiring No. 16 in about 20 years!
Adam — Trey Sweeney's been way over-performing his career hitting numbers since he came over to the Dodgers system this year. Is this just a hot start or the infamous PCL hitter's buff? Or do we know if the Dodgers have done something to his swing or approach that's causing this improvement - if so and he now has MLB-quality bat-to-ball skills, that would be amazing...he's only 24, and a pretty slick up-the middle defender (even if he's not likely to stick at SS long term)
I think a part of his success is due to him playing in such a hitter friendly league, but it certainly is encouraging to see him with career numbers across the board so far. I’m sure the coaching staff down in OKC has worked with him on a couple things, but the sample size is still a little too small for us to really have a big picture idea on him. He does have only 26 games in Triple-A, so we’ll see how his numbers look entering June. If he’s still posting an OPS around .900, maybe there can be a conversation on him and what his chances are of cracking the roster. We know the defense is there with him, so if his bat continues maybe he’ll earn a chance in the big leagues.
Marilyn Fisher — What are your thoughts with all the arm injuries, not just the elbow but now lots of shoulder injuries. Seeing Sheehan, then Graterol and now Hurt head to the 60 day says there must be something seriously wrong but we haven’t heard anything. When is Miller expected back?
It’s not ideal! By my count, 12 different Dodgers pitchers are currently on the IL…. that’s a lot! Like you said, it’s not just arm and elbow injuries, there are a variety of different ones. I know it’s been discussed recently if the pitch clock is to blame, but we truly don’t know. I know injuries are part of the game, but it does seem like there have been far more in 2024 than in previous years. I wish I had an answer or could provide something as to why this is happening.
In regards to Miller, there’s still no timeframe for his return. It sounds like he’s taking part in a throwing progression. Once he gets built back up, he’ll have to throw bullpen sessions and face live hitting. Then I’m sure they’re going to want him to go out on a rehab assignment. My original guess was he’d miss at least six weeks and I’m staying with that prediction.
LifesEZ — Do you think James Outman will get a chance to hit against lefties again? Any idea on why the change? Other than to attempt to justify the costly CT3 by giving him some opportunities to carry his weight (aka- make more outs)?
I really don’t understand why the Dodgers have turned James Outman into a platoon bat. He was pretty decent against lefties as a rookie, posting a 93 wRC+ against them. Sure, it’s slightly below league average, but there are a lot of players who are much worse. Now, things have been much worse for him this season, as he owns a 44 wRC+ against lefties. However, that’s with only 11 plate appearances so we can’t read too much into that. I get not giving him every start, as you do want to get other guys their chances, but turning him into a starter only when a RHP is on the mound, I don’t agree on that. But hey, the guys in the front office know more than me, so gotta trust them!