The Dodgers bullpen is a dumpster fire
One of the worst bullpens in LA Dodgers history
Tuesday night was the most embarrassing loss of the season. It feels like I’ve written that a few times this year, but last night takes the cake.
The Dodgers had a comfortable five-run lead over the Reds. By no means the worst team in baseball, but a team that was six games under .500 entering the night. Regardless of who you’re playing, a five-run lead should be enough to win any game.
Have you seen this Dodgers bullpen? We should have known better.
Little by little, the Reds offense chipped away against LA’s pen. Every name that came out of that bullpen allowed Cincinnati to inch closer to the game.
Well, with the exception of one. Evan Phillips. To no surprise, he tossed a scoreless inning. He’s exempt from this entire article today as he’s been one of the best relievers in all of baseball in 2023.
The Dodgers’ bullpen has been bad all season. They’ve been one of the worst in all of baseball. We know they’re bad, this isn’t any surprise. Tuesday was the breaking point, though.
We’ve seen them struggle as a unit, but blowing a five-run lead to a team below .500 just felt like a sucker punch we had yet to receive this season. It was bad. It was embarrassing.
Sure, it’s just one game. There are 100 more games left this season. But last night’s loss perfectly summed up the Dodgers’ biggest weakness this season. It summed up what has cost them so many games. It summed up what will ultimately cost them a World Series in 2023.
The Dodgers bullpen is a dumpster fire.
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Just how bad have they been?
After years of having one of the best bullpens, the Dodgers suddenly have one of the worst in baseball. Their 4.77 ERA is the fifth worst… and barely. The Nationals, White Sox and Royals are right behind them by only a few points. If the Dodgers allow another run or two, they’ll have the second worst ERA in baseball.
How the hell is that even possible?
Their 4.42 FIP is 24th, their 1.36 WHIP is 23rd and their .249 opponents average is 26th. A bullpen that was expected to be their biggest strength has been their biggest weakness in 2023.
I tweeted this yesterday and it’s still crazy to me.
Yesterday was the Dodgers' FOURTH loss this season when scoring 8+ runs They've also lost NINE games this season when scoring 5+ runs, tied for the most in all of baseball along with the A's (worst team in baseball) Royals (2nd worst team in baseball) and the Angels (the Angels).
Imagine all those numbers if they didn’t have Evan Phillips? Actually, I had to crunch the numbers. If you took out Phillips’ numbers, the bullpen would have an ERA of 5.11 (!!!!!!)
Don’t worry, things get even worse.
Through 61 games, the Dodgers’ bullpen has been historically bad. Like I know it seems they’ve been worse than normal, but this is arguably the worst bullpen the Dodgers have had since moving to Los Angeles.
This is their second worst ERA since 1958. They’re allowing home runs at the highest rate in LA history and their FIP is the fourth worst.
I wasn’t alive for a good portion of their Los Angeles tenure, but are you telling me I’m witnessing one of the worst bullpens in franchise history? Like seriously, how is this possible? What the hell happened?
Who is to blame?
Like I said at the beginning of the article, the only player who gets a pass is Evan Phillips. Outside of him, every option out of the bullpen has been horrible for the Dodgers in 2023.
Sure, a guy might have a solid outing here or there, but when looking at the big picture every arm the Dodgers have turned to has let them down.
Worst of the worst: Phil Bickford, Yency Almonte, Alex Vesia, Andre Jackson
Those four names have combined to throw 79 innings for the Dodgers this season. They’ve allowed 65 runs. That equates to a 7.41 ERA. No, that’s not a misprint.
Jackson currently isn’t on the active roster. Bickford is on the IL (sucks at pitching). Alex Vesia is back after a lengthy stay in the minors. Almonte has been actually better recently, at least until last night. Those four relievers are just unreliable at this point, which sucks.
With the exception of Jackson, those other three relievers have been vital pieces of LA’s bullpen in the past. Almonte was the Dodgers’ second best reliever in 2022 with a 1.02 ERA in 33 games. Vesia had a 2.19 ERA in 104 games from 2021-2022. Bickford was great in 2021 and struggled in 2022, but his ERA of 4.72 from last season would be one of the better ones on the team this year.
Maybe these guys will turn things around, but two months is a large enough sample size. They simply haven’t been good. They haven’t even been okay. They’ve been flat out horrible.
Bad… but good… but also bad?: Justin Bruihl, Caleb Ferguson, Victor Gonzalez
These three relievers have had their ups and downs this season. Justin Bruihl has an ERA of 4.41 this season, largely due to a really bad stretch. He had a four-game run where he allowed seven runs in 5.2 innings. If you take that out, he’s been solid, allowing only one run in 10.2 innings. Still, his overall sample size isn’t great.
Up next is Caleb Ferguson, who was one of the Dodgers’ top relievers through the first two months. Things have taken a quick 180 for him, though. Over his last four games, Ferguson has allowed six runs in only three innings. After being a trusted high-leverage arm, his reliability is a question mark now.
Then there’s Victor Gonzalez, who got off to a hot start to begin his 2023 campaign. He looked like he’d be a high-leverage option for LA. Things have taken a 180 for him as well recently as well. Over his last six games, Gonzalez has a 9.64 ERA.
Maybe Ferguson and Gonzalez can steer the ship in the right direction and get back on track. As of right now though, I don’t really trust either option in a big moment of the game.
The numbers say they’ve been good…. but I don’t know: Brusdar Graterol, Shelby Miller
These next two are weird. Like they’ve been some of the Dodgers’ best options, but I don’t really trust them.
For Graterol, all the numbers say he’s been great in 2023. He has a 2.10 ERA, 2.62 FIP and the highest fWAR among all relievers (0.7) — even higher than Phillips somehow. Even his advanced metrics support him being an above average reliever. Maybe the reason it feels like he’s been worse is because he’s allowed four unearned runs and two inherited runners to score?
I don’t know what it is, but I just don’t trust him in a high-leverage situation.
You then have Shelby Miller, who owns a 2.77 ERA this season. However, his high FIP (4.86) and really poor advanced metrics suggest he’s been very, very, very lucky so far in 2023. I mean, only six of his 23 outings have been clean this year. Not great!
I don’t really trust him in a high-leverage situation either. But at least he hasn’t really been the cause of many losses?
So yeah, outside of Phillips there isn’t a reliever I trust at the moment. If it is a one-run game and the heart of the order is due up in the ninth inning, who would you trust the most? Seriously, who would it be?
At this point, I would just analytics the hell out of it and use that to figure out who gives me the best chances. Honestly, maybe Nick Robertson is the best choice at the moment, and he hasn’t even made his MLB debut yet.
Who can save them?
The Dodgers have a number of options currently on the IL that could really help the bullpen. There’s just one issue… and it’s a pretty big one.
We have no idea when we’ll see any of them.
Here are a number of relievers currently on the IL with uncertainty surrounding their potential return.
Blake Treinen, Alex Reyes, Jimmy Nelson, J.P. Feyereisen, Ryan Pepiot
If the Dodgers could get a couple of those names back it could greatly help them. Those are some really solid names that could turn things around. Like I said, there’s no timetable for any of them to return.
Don’t worry, I do have some good news! Daniel Hudson appeared in a game in the Arizona Complex League yesterday, so he’s beginning his rehab. I just don’t have any idea on when we can see him return as well.
Based on the way things are looking, Andrew Friedman is going to have to get to work. The trade deadline is less than two months away and the Dodgers need help…. desperately. You cannot go into October with this current bullpen. It just can’t happen. You also can’t rely on those guys returning from the injured list as well.
The Dodgers are going to need to find ways to strengthen this bullpen somehow. They’ll likely have to overpay, but they need some reliable arms they can trust in high-leverage situations.
Final verdict
The Dodgers aren’t winning a World Series with this current bullpen. Unless the offense scores 10 runs a game or the starting rotation goes eight scoreless innings every outing, there’s just no way this team can win 11 games (maybe 13) in October.
I trust Friedman and I trust the front office. I’m sure they’ll do whatever they can to improve the bullpen at the deadline.
Maybe this is just some bad dream and I’ll wake up and every arm will be elite again….
Wow Blake, you are on!! Let’s just hope Andrew Friedman reads your stuff. Let’s just hope you are his fav writer!! And to think, I was pissed when they traded Polluck for Kimbrel!
The Dodgers have a comparative wealth of starting pitching, but a paucity of bullpen talent? Why not just go with a double-rotation - pencil in a starter to go the first 4-6, and then a second, "b-team" starter to go the next 3-5, with a couple trusted "firemen" in reserve to put out emergencies? I know it's goofy as all heck, but I can't see how it would get worse results than the Dodgers are getting trying to run out a traditional "Starter-then-parade-of-1-inning-max-effort-guys" pitching set-up.
And it's not as if the Dodgers haven't tried this before! This is how they broke in Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin - and they've had above-average success using starters as high-quality relievers/above-average swingmen in the past (Stripling, Maeda, Urias, White, Wood, Price...even Tyler Anderson was supposed to be this before he won a full-time starting gig).