Should the Dodgers consider a trade for Mason Miller?
They could acquire the best reliever in baseball
Although the trade deadline is over two months away, it’s never too early to start talking trades. While it remains to be seen if the Dodgers make any sort of move, there’s a potential blockbuster trade that has many fans riled up across social media.
On Wednesday, Bleacher Report posted an article sharing some hypothetical trades for Mason Miller, arguably the best relief pitcher in baseball at the moment.
For all we know, the Dodgers could have ZERO interest in acquiring Miller. Although he’s reportedly available, the asking price is rightfully high. It would take a haul to bring him over.
I thought BR’s hypothetical trade proposal would make for an interesting discussion. If the Dodgers have the chance to acquire the best relief pitcher in baseball, should they do it?
First off, who is Mason Miller?
Like I mentioned earlier, he’s the best reliever in baseball and I don’t think there’s a close second. His numbers to begin the season are historically good. Like, I don’t think you could post these numbers in a video game if you had it on the easiest setting.
In 18.1 innings, Miller owns a 0.98 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and -0.22 FIP. No, that’s not a misprint. He has a NEGATIVE FIP. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.
Oh, he’s also averaging just under 19 strikeouts per nine innings. He has struck out 38 of the 67 batters he has faced this season. Yeah, that’s over half.
Look at his Savant page. As Larry David once said….
“Pretty, pretty, pretty good.”
Miller has also provided a fWAR of 1.3. For reference, that is tied for the seventh most among all pitchers in baseball. As a reliever, that shouldn’t happen. He’s provided either the same or more value than these Cy Young caliber pitchers: Logan Webb, Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola, Seth Lugo, Corbin Burnes and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
A reminder, he’s done this in about 30+ fewer innings than those guys.
Miller is currently on pace to finish his season with a fWAR of 4.7. For reference on how good that is, here are the greatest seasons by a reliever in fWAR history.
5.2 - Bruce Sutter (1977)
4.9 - Mark Eichhorn (1986)
4.8 - Bruce Sutter (1979)
4.7 - Eric Gagne (2003), Jim Kern (1979)
With the exception of Gagne (82 innings), all those players threw more than 100 innings in those seasons. Eichhorn threw 157 innings and Kern threw 143 innings. Miller is on track to throw only 65 innings this season. Think about that. He’d be posting nearly the same fWAR as those guys while throwing about 80 fewer innings.
Miller is on pace to have one of the greatest seasons we’ve ever seen from a reliever. When we’re looking back at his 2024 campaign, there’s a realistic chance it’s the greatest ever. He’s on pace to have a better season than guys like Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and many other all-time greats ever had.
Did I mention he won’t be a free agent until 2030? He’s under team control through the end of the 2029 season. He won’t even be eligible for arbitration until 2026. One of the best relievers in the game is under a team friendly contract for the foreseeable future.
Alright, so what would it cost?
Well, we don’t really know for sure. What we do know is that it’ll likely be a lot. Last week, Ken Rosenthal said the A’s would be asking for a haul. That’s totally fair. They should be.
Back to that Bleacher Report article from earlier, here’s what they proposed. Again, this isn’t saying this is what the Dodgers would offer. It could take more, it could take less. But I thought this was an interesting gauge at what an offer might consist of.
Dalton Rushing (Dodgers No. 1, MLB No. 71)
OF Josue De Paula (Dodgers No. 2, MLB No. 92)
RHP Kyle Hurt (Dodgers No. 4)
Yeah, that’s quite the ask. I mean, three of the Dodgers’ top four prospects is crazy in any trade. Especially for a reliever who pitches one inning a few times a week. But I get it.
Here’s where I stand on this deal, if this is what it would take.
You all know where I am on Kyle Hurt. I like him a lot. I think he can be a really good reliever for the Dodgers. It sounds like the Dodgers still view him as a starting pitcher. The Dodgers don’t really need any more starting pitchers at the moment. Also no offense to Hurt, but I don’t think he’ll ever be as good as Miller. So, I’d include him.
Dalton Rushing is an interesting one. While he’s a consensus top 100 prospect, he doesn’t really have a future spot with the big league club. Both catcher and first base are blocked for at least the next three seasons, potentially more. So barring him learning how to play second base, third base or outfield, I don’t see a spot for Rushing in the immediate future with this club.
The tough one for me is Josue De Paula. He’s at the top of my list for ‘untouchable prospects’. He’s only 18 years old and he’s drawn comparisons to Yordan Alvarez. If he continues on his current trajectory, he could be reaching the big leagues before he even turns 21.
That’s still at least three years away, though.
I would hate to part ways with him. If the Dodgers could swap him out and attach a Miguel Vargas + another piece, I’d be all for this deal.
At the end of the day, it’s all about winning championships. While the Dodgers are the favorite to win the World Series in 2024, they could still use help in their bullpen. I know numbers wise they’ve had a top five bullpen, but have you seen how many injuries they’ve dealt with already? You can NEVER have enough bullpen pieces.
Is it fair to expect Treinen, Hudson, Graterol and Kelly to all be healthy by the time October rolls around? Sure, all four could be healthy and ready to go, but would anyone be shocked if two, or even three of those guys were on the IL?
Now to counter that, I know Miller hasn’t necessarily been healthy throughout his career. He only has 90 innings under his belt… including the minors. So pick your poison, pretty much.
With that being said, the Dodgers would be a better team with Mason Miller in their bullpen. It’s pretty simple.
I know they have a closer currently in Evan Phillips. He’s under control through 2027. It’s totally fair to say the Dodgers don’t need one. But can you imagine a 1-2 punch in the 8th/9th of Phillips and Miller? Remember back when Eric Gagne used to pitch it was “Game Over”? Well, that would be the case with these two.
While the Dodgers hope to have a decade long window to win the World Series, this is their time to strike right here. They have Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman all still in their prime. Three years from now, who knows how these guys will look. I hope all three are still posting these kind of numbers, but we just don’t know.
If you can improve your chances of winning a World Series this year and next year, you need to go for it.
Oh, and it’s not like the Dodgers are acquiring a guy who is entering free agency this offseason…. or next offseason, or the one after that. You’re getting a guy who has a chance to be the best closer in baseball through 2030.
Imagine having five years of a prime Josh Hader, Devin Williams, Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel or Edwin Diaz? That’s what the Dodgers could be getting with Miller. They could be getting an untouchable reliever in the heart of their prime for 5+ seasons.
Opportunities like this don’t really happen. You don’t have a chance to acquire these kind of guys with all this control.
Trust me, I understand the risk with relievers. They are the most volatile position in all of baseball. Things can change on a year-to-year basis. But when was the last time we saw a reliever dominate like this?
In 2022 during Edwin Diaz’s insane run, he posted an ERA+ of 297. When Eric Gagne won the Cy Young 20 years ago, he had a 337 ERA+. This season, Miller’s ERA+ is 396. You can argue that he has a much smaller sample size so it doesn’t mean much, which would be fair. My point is, he’s pitching considerably better than those two pitchers did when they were untouchable relievers.
The closest comparison I was able to find was Craig Kimbrel’s 2012 season. He posted a 399 ERA+ that season, as he had a 1.01 ERA, 0.78 FIP and 0.65 WHIP. Those are nearly identical to the numbers Miller is posting now. If the Braves would have traded Kimbrel then, the team acquiring him would have gotten a guy that finished Top 10 in Cy Young voting over the next three seasons. Over his next five seasons, he’d make four All-Star teams, post a 1.90 ERA and have 209 saves.
Obviously you can’t compare the two as it’s impossible to predict the future, but what if Miller gave you similar production over the next five years. Would that be worth the prospect capital? I think it easily would be.
The Dodgers could have zero interest in Miller. If that’s the case, well then this article was for nothing and I just wasted an hour of my life.
But what if they are interested?
Like I mentioned above, acquiring Miller would make the Dodgers a better team. It would improve their chances of winning the World Series this season and next season, and probably the year after that. That is what is most important.
Sure, those prospects could all pan out. They could be useful for the Dodgers in 2027. They also could not turn into superstars. They could be busts. We simply don’t know.
I don’t think there is any prospect currently in the Dodgers’ system that boosts their chances of winning a World Series over the next 2-3 seasons. I could be wrong and a young talent could emerge and prove me wrong, but I don’t see a prospect making as much of an impact through 2027 as Mason Miller could make.
We’ve seen the Dodgers develop prospects better than anyone over the years. If they part with a couple of valuable pieces, I trust them to develop the next batch of Top 10 prospects.
The team has a chance to acquire the best closer in baseball. They have a chance to lock him in through 2030. I think they gotta do it.
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I’d like to see them be aggressive and go all in this season. This trade sends 2 blocked players and a 18 year old for a stud reliever. Yes please.
Alright Blake, I’m sold!!! Give me Miller!!!!!